What Is an Electricity Market?
Unlike most goods, electricity must be generated and consumed at exactly the same instant. You can't stockpile it in a warehouse. This creates a unique market where a grid operator — called an Independent System Operator (ISO) — must constantly balance supply and demand in real time.
Power plant owners submit bids saying "I can supply X megawatts at price Y." The ISO stacks these bids from cheapest to most expensive and purchases just enough to meet demand. The last (most expensive) unit needed to balance the grid sets the price for everyone.
Merit Order Dispatch
The ISO dispatches plants in merit order — cheapest first. This minimizes the total cost of electricity for consumers.
Example: 1,800 MW Demand
| Plant | Type | Bid Price | MW Offered | Dispatched? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ☀️ Solar Farm | DA | $52/MWh | 500 MW | ✓ 500 MW |
| ⚛️ Nuclear | DA | $58/MWh | 600 MW | ✓ 600 MW |
| 💨 Wind Farm | RT | $62/MWh | 400 MW | ✓ 400 MW |
| 🏭 Coal Plant | RT | $71/MWh | 800 MW | ✓ 300 MW ← marginal |
| 🔥 Gas Peaker | RT | $95/MWh | 300 MW | Not needed |
The ISO dispatches Solar → Nuclear → Wind → 300 MW of Coal. Total = 1,800 MW. The Gas Peaker is not needed this hour.
The Clearing Price
The clearing price (also called the marginal price or locational marginal price) is the price of the most expensive unit that was actually dispatched. Every RT bidder that was dispatched earns this same price — even if their bid was lower.
In the example above
The Coal plant bid $71/MWh and was the last unit needed. Clearing price = $71/MWh.
The Wind Farm bid $62/MWh but earns $71/MWh — a $9/MWh windfall. This is called "infra-marginal rent" and is a deliberate feature of electricity markets: it incentivizes cheap plants to stay in the market and remain available.
Real World
In CAISO (California), clearing prices vary from negative values (when solar overproduces) to $1,000+/MWh during scarcity events. The 2021 Texas winter storm saw prices hit the $9,000/MWh market cap for days.
Day-Ahead vs. Real-Time Markets
Real electricity markets run two parallel auctions:
Day-Ahead (DA) Market
Plants submit bids the day before delivery. The ISO runs the auction 24 hours in advance. Generators that clear the DA market receive a guaranteed price — no price risk on delivery day.
Real-Time (RT) Market
Plants submit bids for the current hour. They're exposed to price volatility — if demand is low, prices collapse; if demand spikes, prices can be very high.
When to use each strategy
| Condition | Favor | Why |
|---|---|---|
| High demand expected, tight market | RT | Clearing price will be high — more upside |
| Uncertain demand, risky market | DA | Lock in guaranteed revenue |
| You're the cheapest plant | RT at low price | You'll set the clearing price floor |
| You're Nuclear or Coal (must-run) | DA | Baseload plants prefer certainty |
| You're a Battery | RT | Arbitrage: charge cheap, discharge expensive |
LCOE — Your Break-Even Price
The Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) is the minimum price at which a plant must sell electricity to break even over its lifetime. It's the single most important number for an energy asset.
Worked example: Solar Farm
| Parameter | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| CapEx | $1,000/kW × 500 MW | = $500M total capital |
| Discount rate | 5% | |
| Plant life | 20 years | |
| Annualized CapEx | ~$40.1M/year | Using annuity formula |
| Annual OpEx | $10/MWh × 8760 × 500 × 0.25 | = $10.95M/year |
| Annual output | 500 MW × 0.25 × 8,760 h | = 1,095,000 MWh/year |
| LCOE | ~$46.5/MWh | Minimum break-even price |
Any revenue above $46.5/MWh is pure profit. Any revenue below means you're losing money on every unit dispatched. Set your DA floor price at or above your LCOE.
Carbon Pricing
Carbon pricing adds a cost to every tonne of CO₂ emitted. This makes fossil fuel plants more expensive to operate, which shifts them higher in the merit order and gives zero-carbon plants a competitive advantage.
Impact by difficulty setting
| Difficulty | Carbon Price | Extra cost for Coal | Extra cost for Gas |
|---|---|---|---|
| Easy | $0/tonne | $0/MWh | $0/MWh |
| Medium | $20/tonne | +$18/MWh | +$9/MWh |
| Hard | $60/tonne | +$54/MWh | +$27/MWh |
Real World
The EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) carbon price hit €100/tonne in 2023. At that price, coal plants pay ~€90/MWh extra — making them nearly uncompetitive against renewables and gas in most markets.
Battery Storage & Arbitrage
A battery earns money not from burning fuel, but from price arbitrage — buying cheap electricity when prices are low, storing it, and selling it back when prices are high.
State of Charge (SoC) constraint
You can't discharge more energy than you stored. The battery has a fixed energy capacity (800 MWh) and power capacity (200 MW), and charging loses 12% to round-trip inefficiency. The SoC constraints in the game are:
Real World
As of 2024, the US has over 20 GW of grid-scale battery storage — mostly 4-hour lithium-ion systems co-located with solar. Hornsdale Power Reserve in Australia (150 MW / 194 MWh) is often credited with saving South Australia over $150M in its first 2 years through frequency arbitrage.
How Your Profit Is Calculated
After each block, the game calculates your profit using this exact formula:
Blackout outcomes
If total supply falls short of demand, the grid blacks out — but the game distinguishes why:
- Natural blackout — a weather event derated plants, or demand physically exceeded available capacity. No financial penalty; the game continues with a full explanation of what happened.
- Preventable blackout — players withheld capacity that could have kept the lights on. All players lose $50,000 and the game ends, with a per-player breakdown of who withheld how much.
This mirrors real market design: grid operators investigate every shortfall, and strategic withholding that causes scarcity is market manipulation — the kind of behavior that ended Enron.
Capacity Markets & PPAs
Selling energy isn't the only way a power plant earns money. Two other revenue streams from real markets appear in the game:
Capacity Market (Hard mode)
At each season start, the ISO procures 15% of total nameplate capacity as reserve through a sealed availability auction. You offer a price in $/MW; the cheapest offers win.
Data Center PPA (when the data center goes live)
A one-time sealed-bid auction for a Power Purchase Agreement: the lowest $/MWh bid wins a private contract to serve the data center for the rest of the game, bypassing the market.
Plant Types & Economics
Each plant type has distinct economics, risk profile, and strategic role. Choose the one that matches your preferred playstyle.
Curveball effects by plant type
| Event | Affected Plant | Effect | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| ⛈️ Storm System | Solar | –60% capacity | Spring |
| 🌡️ Extreme Heatwave | Coal | –25% capacity (cooling towers) | Summer |
| 🧊 Pipeline Freeze | Gas | +50% fuel cost | Winter |
| 🌍 Geopolitical Tension | Coal + Gas | +30% fuel cost | Any |
| 📉 Demand Response | All RT bidders | –10% demand | Summer |
| 🖥️ DC AI Training Spike | All (opportunity) | +40% demand | Any (if DC active) |
| 🚨 Emergency Dispatch | All (opportunity) | +30% demand, 2× revenue, 30s bid timer | Any |
Further Reading
Want to go deeper into real electricity market mechanics?
- FERC: Energy Primer — A Handbook of Energy Market Basics — The US federal regulator's accessible overview of how markets work
- Lazard LCOE Analysis — Published annually, tracks real-world LCOE by technology
- PJM Learning Center — Interactive explainers from the world's largest competitive electricity market
- Our World in Data: Energy — Global data on energy production, consumption, and emissions